5 ways the Iran war shows NATO is not ready to fight Russia

BRUSSELS — NATO has stayed out of the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran, but the conflict has nevertheless exposed cracks in the alliance’s defenses that would see it struggle if Russia attacks.

“The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are not separate phenomena; there is much to learn from both in thinking about the wars of tomorrow,” Gen. Dominique Tardif, France’s deputy air force chief, said. “These combined lessons should lead us to a better understanding of how to direct capability development.”

European military officials have warned Moscow could be in a position to attack an alliance member by 2029, highlighting the urgent need for battle readiness and political cohesion across the alliance.

POLITICO spoke to a dozen diplomats, current and former NATO officials, and defense experts — some of whom were granted anonymity to speak freely about the sensitive issue — to compile five gaps in the alliance laid bare by the war in the Middle East.

1. Running out of ammo

The Iran war has thrown NATO’s ammunition shortage into sharp relief.

The U.S. burned through around half its total inventory of critical Patriot air defense missiles, while French officials warned that stocks of its Aster and Mica missiles were running low as soon as the the first two weeks of the war. Defense firms like Rheinmetall and MBDA have also pointed to surging demand and looming shortages.

If the U.S. continues to shift its attention to the Indo-Pacific, “there will be substantial assets removed” from Europe, said one senior NATO diplomat. “We have too little of these assets.”

Unless NATO changes tack, Russia “will price us out of a war quickly,” warned Calvin Bailey, a lawmaker from Britain’s ruling Labour Party on the U.K. parliament’s defense committee.

With Moscow producing “6,000 to 7,000” one-way attack drones per month, NATO allies would be left without high-value air defense missiles within “weeks,” said Justin Bronk, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. 

That creates an “urgent requirement for more affordable air-to-air interceptors,” he added, arguing NATO should focus on cheaper alternatives to the Patriot like the AGR-20 laser-guided missile — and build out passive defenses like hardened concrete aircraft shelters.

The alliance’s munitions shortages will now feature heavily at July’s summit of NATO leaders, according to one person familiar with the matter.

2. Air inferiority

Iran’s ability to continue pummeling neighboring Gulf states with over 5,000 missile and drone attacks despite the U.S. aerial campaign shows the “clear limits to the expectation that you can bomb a country into submission” with conventional aircraft, said Pieter Wezeman, a senior researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

The HMS Dragon is pictured in Portsmouth, England on March 4, 2026. | Peter Nicholls/Getty Images

In response, NATO must rethink air dominance and look for creative solutions to deter Russia, like turbocharging investment in long-range precision strike weapons capable of targeting Moscow’s drone production and military sites deep inside the country, said Bronk.

“If we can get air superiority over a contested area, then even Europe on its own could devastate Russian forces in the field,” he said, suggesting bolstering purchases of American-made AGM-88G missiles, with a range of up to 300 kilometers.

The Iran war has already prompted new discussions within NATO on the need for greater deep strike capabilities, said the two alliance diplomats, as talks on the organization’s next four-year defense planning cycle kick off this year.

3. Underpowered navies

Europe’s limited deployment to help Gulf allies has also illustrated the gaping underinvestment in NATO navies.

The clearest example is the U.K. After taking three weeks to deploy its HMS Dragon destroyer toward the Mediterranean, the vessel was sent back to port over a technical hitch.

That’s not surprising. Britain’s maritime chief Gen. Gwyn Jenkins last month acknowledged the Royal Navy was not ready for war, arguing other allies were also lagging behind. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney previously said less than half his country’s fleet is operational.

“Since 2022, we’ve been focusing far more on land forces … and now suddenly we’re just noticing the fleet availability across NATO really is quite poor,” said Ed Arnold, a former NATO official.

In any conflict with Moscow, navies will be essential in hunting down submarines near Russia’s northern Kola Peninsula and neutralizing vessels equipped with long-range Kalibr cruise missiles, said Sidharth Kaushal, a maritime security expert at RUSI.

NATO must also improve shared ship maintenance facilities, he said, as well as address personnel shortages and invest in flexible vessels that can be adapted to different missions —inspired by the Netherlands’ Multifunctional Support Ship program.

4. Enduring disunity

The war has also widened the chasm inside NATO — with Europe snubbing U.S. President Donald Trump’s demands for military support, prompting Washington to draw up options for retaliation.

That’s sparking fresh concern inside the alliance, the two NATO diplomats said. Meanwhile, Trump has continued to slam NATO, repeatedly branding it a “paper tiger.”

The risk after Iran, Arnold added, is that “the president can say ‘We’re not getting involved this time round,’” or commit only to a limited deployment if Moscow invades.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte gives a press conference in Brussels on March 26, 2026. | Nicolas Tucat/AFP via Getty Images

In response, European capitals must adopt the same “transactional approach” as Trump, said Anders Fogh Rasmussen, a former NATO secretary-general. They should clearly link their support in reopening the Strait of Hormuz to Washington’s commitment to NATO.

He also cautioned against continuing to placate Trump, a key plank of NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte’s approach to the U.S. president. “The time for flattering is over,” said Rasmussen.

5. Ukraine matters

Within days of the start of the war in Iran, Ukraine sent its drone experts, well-versed in using homegrown interceptors to shoot down Iranian Shahed-type drones used by Russia, to assist countries across the Middle East. Kyiv eventually signed decade-long defense partnerships with Gulf nations.

NATO has rapidly expanded its institutional ties with Ukraine, ranging from a joint training and research center in Poland to military visits to Kyiv and a newly minted industrial program to acquire innovative tech from the country, dubbed UNITE-Brave NATO.

The alliance should now work to set up a “belt” of anti-drone assets closer to Russia’s border as a first line of defense, said Bronk.

It could also do more to intensify its industrial relationship with Ukraine, the two NATO diplomats said, including more funding for UNITE-Brave.

“Ukraine is acting as a security provider,” said a third NATO diplomat. The war in Iran has “proven that.”

Laura Kayali and Veronika Melkozerova contributed to this report.