From high fares to fuel shortages: 3 scenarios for Europe’s summer travel season

BRUSSELS — Even if the war in the Middle East were to end tomorrow, Europe’s airlines and travelers are bracing for a turbulent summer.

Airfares are set to remain high and airline profits under pressure as continued disruption to fuel shipments from Gulf countries through the Strait of Hormuz drives up costs and raises the risk of shortages just as peak travel season begins.

The EU does not produce enough jet fuel to meet domestic demand; its refining capacity can cover at most 70 percent of airlines’ needs. Any prolonged disruption to tanker traffic through the strait could leave airlines scrambling for supply.

How severe the impact becomes will depend on how quickly shipping through the strait returns to normal.

POLITICO looked at three possible scenarios.

OK: War ends, strait reopens

A quick end to the war and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would not resolve the jet fuel crisis overnight, as tankers would still need more than a month to reach Europe from the Gulf.

Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), warned earlier this month that even in such a scenario, “it will still take a period of months to get back to where supply needs to be.” Scarcity of jet fuel supply means ticket prices will likely remain high through the summer.

However, a rapid resolution of the conflict could avoid widespread flight cancellations or political measures to curb travel demand, said George Shaw, senior oil analyst at energy consultancy Kpler.

Frédéric Deleau, vice president for Europe at International Federation of Air Traffic Controllers’ Associations and co-author of a recent report on the issue, warned that even in this best-case scenario, “Europe would still likely experience elevated fuel prices through the summer,” although the bloc would be spared large-scale fuel shortages at airports.

“But if this continues for a couple of more weeks, it won’t be a matter of price; it will be a matter of supply,” he said.

Bad: Partial reopening, uneven supply

The most likely outcome, according to many experts, is a partial resolution of the conflict by early summer, with shipping resuming in fits and starts.

In such a scenario, jet fuel prices would remain high and supply would be uncertain, meaning “weak-performing flights [could be] cancelled, and some airports [could face] periodic fuel constraints,” Deleau wrote in an analysis.

International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol speaks at the Petersberg Climate Dialogue conference in Berlin on April 22, 2026. | John MacDougall/AFP via Getty Images

Long-haul leisure flights and less popular regional routes would most likely be first on the chopping bloc, the document said.

Because of high ticket prices, “people are starting to think about driving to their holidays or … the staycation might be back,” said Andrew Charlton, managing director of the Aviation Advocacy consultancy.

Under such a scenario, he said airlines may cut more short regional flights, but more profitable longer routes served by fewer airlines would likely be safe.

“The risk passengers actually face is price, meaning fuel surcharges, fewer discounted fares, and thinned-out frequency on marginal routes,” said Marina Efthymiou, professor of aviation at Dublin City University.

Lufthansa has already said it will ax 20,000 flights in the coming months to reduce fuel usage, and it’s not alone.

Airlines have also said that price increases will be passed on to consumers. “We are obliged to do so, because otherwise we just are bankrupt in a few months,” Sébastien Justum, Air France-KLM’s senior vice president, said at a recent event at the European Parliament.

International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol warned earlier this month that Europe could run out of jet fuel by early June.

Airports are also in trouble.

“Airports are caught in the middle here,” said Charlton. “They are the holders of the fuel, but they don’t purchase it … If they don’t have fuel then the airlines won’t fly to them. And that’s clearly a big problem.”

Worst: War continues

If the disruption of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz lasts through the summer, “European jet [fuel] inventories risk breaching operational minimums,” Kpler warned.

At that point, the jet fuel market response would shift to “outright demand rationing.”

According to Efthymiou, “if this escalates even further, Jet A1 [fuel] shortages can completely change the landscape to fuel rationing [in Europe and Asia] where we have a big dependence on Middle East oil,” she said.

The European Commission is preparing contingency plans. | iStock

“Overall though the whole sector is exposed, and this is materially worse than a normal oil price spike because it’s two problems at once: price and physical supply,” she added.

While the European Commission has dismissed the most catastrophic scenario of a jet fuel shortage hitting EU airports, it is still preparing contingency plans.

Transport Commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas warned on Tuesday that countries may have to share their emergency fuel reserves if shortages materialize.

Deleau warned of spillover effects across the wider aviation industry, as well.

If cancellations exceed 10 percent of normal traffic levels, not only would air traffic control providers face declining revenues because fewer flights would fly, but airlines would also have to make up for the losses, ending up “double penalized.”

Deleau also said low-cost carriers could be particularly exposed, as they “rely on high aircraft utilisation, dense schedules and price-sensitive demand.” 

“A broad fuel shock weakens exactly that model,” he added.