NATO’s frontline countries jockey for US troops after Trump’s Germany withdrawal

At least five NATO countries on Europe’s eastern flank are rushing to bid for American troops on their soil after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would pull 5,000 or more soldiers from Germany.

Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia and Romania have all expressed interest in hosting more U.S. troops, both through public statements and private lobbying. The push comes after Trump announced the German drawdown earlier this month over an escalating spat with Berlin — sparked by Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s comments that Tehran had “humiliated” Washington with its negotiation tactics in the Iran war.

“I firmly believe a stronger U.S. presence on the Eastern Flank is necessary … we would welcome a permanent U.S. presence on our territory,” Romania’s outgoing Deputy Defense Minister Sorin Moldovan told POLITICO. “Romania has consistently demonstrated its commitment to the [country’s] Strategic Partnership with the U.S. and has proven itself a reliable partner.”

“We need more troops,” Romanian Defense Minister Radu Miruță told journalists at the Foreign Affairs Council meeting of defense ministers Tuesday.

He’s not the only one to make a public appeal. Last week, both Polish President Karol Nawrocki and his Lithuanian counterpart Gitanas Nausėda said they would be ready to host more U.S. troops on their soil. Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže echoed that sentiment on Monday.

An Estonian defense ministry spokesperson told POLITICO the country “highly values U.S. contribution and supports an expanded U.S. footprint to ensure robust deterrence and defence throughout the Baltics.”

Eastern flank allies, many of which border Russia, have seen the U.S. — and American troops on their territory — as their primary security guarantor and deterrent against a revanchist Moscow, even more so since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine began. It’s one reason why they have been muted in their criticism of Trump and supportive of the war in Iran.

The Pentagon is yet to make a final decision on which troops the drawdown will affect in Germany, according to a U.S. official, who was granted anonymity to speak freely. It’s also unclear if those troops will move to another European country or be sent back home.

But NATO countries on Russia’s border have already jumped at the possibility, leveraging the fact they remain in Trump’s good graces due to their high defense spending and support for the U.S. war effort — both in public statements and by granting American troops largely unfettered access to their military bases. All five countries hosted a modest presence of U.S. soldiers as of March, according to official government data.

Leaders’ public appeals have been complemented by back-door maneuvering. At least one allied country delegation has approached U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker to make their case directly, according to a senior alliance diplomat. There’s a “window of opportunity,” they said. 

On paper, the strategy appears to be working. Trump on Saturday told reporters he “might” move U.S. troops to Poland. “I have a great relationship with the president,” he said, “so that’s possible.”

But political realities on the ground could get in the way. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, the political opponent of President Nawrocki, warned last week that Poland should not “poach” troops from allies. He added Warsaw would take “any opportunity” to increase the U.S. presence on its territory, but he would not allow the country to be used to break European unity.  Tusk and Nawrocki are at loggerheads on several issues, and frequently publicly oppose each other’s political views.

The Pentagon is yet to make a final decision on which troops the drawdown will affect in Germany. | J. David Ake/Getty Images

While local authorities from German towns hosting U.S. troops would prefer the soldiers stay for economic reasons, the government is unlikely to oppose a greater American presence on Russia’s border as a deterrent, according to one German official. A spokesperson for the German defense ministry declined to comment.

However, a rotation may be hard to achieve in practice. Not all frontline countries are practically able to host an extra 5,000 troops, said Jennifer Kavanagh, director of military analysis at the Defense Priorities think tank. 

Poland and Romania have the necessary spare capacity to host more soldiers, with minor infrastructure upgrades, but “in the Baltics, space is more constrained and some additional planning and construction would likely be needed,” she said.

But Trump’s words have not yet been translated into action. “So far, [the] Americans have not approached us on any changes in the posture,” said one senior defense official from an eastern flank country.

Shifting the soldiers may also butt up against political realities inside the U.S. government, Kavanagh added, which has repeatedly pressed Europe to shoulder more responsibility for its own security. “Moving forces eastward is inconsistent with the Trump administration’s vision … and expectation that Europe take control of its conventional defense,” she said.

Chris Lunday contributed to this report.