How to watch Italy’s referendum like a pro

ROME — Giorgia Meloni is running Italy’s most stable government in years, but her political future now appears closely tied to a major referendum on Sunday and Monday.

The plebiscite will address the bitter and complex question of judicial reform — something right-wingers such as Meloni have pursued for decades, accusing judges of political interference and left-wing bias.

The changes sought by the referendum are highly technical, but the vote will be viewed as a wider test of confidence in the prime minister and her government.

If Meloni wins, the victory will cement her power before a general election expected next year. But if she loses, the opposition will smell blood.

Voters will be asked to support the reforms by voting “yes,” or reject them by crossing “no” on their ballots.

Here’s everything you need to know about the referendum, and what happens next.

The logistics

Booths will be open on Sunday from 7 a.m. to 11 p.m. and on Monday from 7 a.m. to 3 p.m., while expats should have mailed their ballots by March 19. Exit polls will be published at 3 p.m. on Monday and official results will be confirmed later in the day.

The constitutional referendum is binding No matter what the turnout

What polls say

Italian law prevents the media from polling citizens within two weeks of the vote, but the latest numbers published March 7 identified a “growing trend” toward the “no” campaign. Still, the race looks finely balanced, with much depending on turnout.

Turnout data — released throughout the day Sunday and at close of polls on Monday — could give an early indication of the results: A lower turnout is expected to favor the opposition, while higher figures should help Meloni.

A man works next to a giant poster reading “Vote No to the law of the strongest”, ahead of the upcoming referendum on Justice reform, on March 20, 2026. | Stefano Rellandini / AFP via Getty Images

The Iran war poses a risk to Meloni that may have ramped up since the last polls. Italian voters greatly dislike her ally, U.S. President Donald Trump, and are worried about rises in their already high energy bills thanks to the Middle East conflict.

What reforms are being proposed?

The government says it wants to break the judiciary into different career tracks to prevent groupthink and to stop cases being sewn up between judges and prosecutors from the same background.

The reform suggests separating the career paths of judges and prosecutors — who currently share the same entrance exams and training programs — and adding a second prosecutors’ governing body to the existing one for personnel matters as well as a higher court in charge of discipline. Most members of the three courts will be selected by a lottery system rather than elected.

How did we get here?

The Italian justice system has often been the center of political debates.

Meloni’s government argues the reform is needed to fix an overly politicized and unaccountable judiciary, but the “no” campaign — led by the opposition — sees it as an authoritarian move to muzzle judges and reduce their independence. 

In the 1990s, following the Mani Pulite (“Clean Hands”)corruption scandal that broke the Christian Democrats’ decades-long hold on power, politicians were discredited, while prosecutors were hailed as heroes and gained moral authority. This triggered lasting grievances on the right and a conviction that the judiciary has become a political force. 

Things have not always been so binary.

The idea of separating the career paths of judges and prosecutors was also previously supported by the left: Massimo D’Alema, who was secretary of the left-wing Partito Democratico di Sinistra and would soon become prime minister, proposed the reform as chair of a bipartisan parliamentary commission in 1997.

But everything changed when Silvio Berlusconi came to power.

The late prime minister took a more antagonistic stance toward the judiciary, alleging he was being prosecuted because of political interests. He nicknamed judges toghe rosse (“red robes”), accusing them of being Communist sympathizers and indulging a personal vendetta against him. He repeatedly attempted to rein in prosecutorial power, including curbing the use of wiretaps, instituting parliamentary immunity and shortening the statute of limitations. 

In 2002 Berlusconi proposed a similar constitutional amendment to Meloni’s, but was forced to retreat after a fierce backlash. Since then most governments, like Mario Draghi’s in 2021, have focused on passing more targeted laws to improve efficiency.

The ayes have it: What’s next?

If she wins, Meloni will take her victory lap, celebrating the reform and adding an arrow to her political quiver ahead of next year’s general election.

She could attempt to ride the momentum and force an early vote before economic headwinds pick up, fueled by the energy crisis and the end of Italy’s EU-funded Covid recovery assistance. But she has said publicly that she wants to serve out her full term.

The nays have it: What’s next?

Meloni has tried her best to avoid former Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s referendum mistake: making it personal. When Renzi lost the vote on his constitutional reform in 2016 he was forced to step down, after running a campaign that tied his name and fate to the outcome.

The current Italian leader has insisted she won’t resign if her proposals fail. 

But she won’t come out of it unscathed, either.

Meloni has presented herself as a strong and stable leader, untouched by scandals and internal party squabbles, something unseen in Italy’s modern history. Losing the referendum would amount to the first real dent in her political armor and would hand a significant win to the opposition, putting her on a bumpy track before next year’s general election.