Orbán’s exit leaves Israel exposed in Europe

Viktor Orbán’s defeat in Hungary’s general election strips Israel of one of its most dependable allies inside the European Union, removing a leader who repeatedly used his veto to shield Benjamin Netanyahu’s government from pressure.

His ouster comes as criticism of Israel is hardening across Europe, raising the chances of new EU sanctions on violent West Bank settlers and adding momentum to efforts to downgrade EU-Israel relations.

That shift is visible even among leaders who had been seen as broadly sympathetic to Israel. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Tuesday he was “deeply concerned about developments in the Palestinian territories” following human rights organizations’ reports of a surge in violence against Palestinians by settlers in the West Bank. Italy last week suspended a defense and technology agreement with Israel after Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani denounced what he called “unacceptable” Israeli attacks in Lebanon.

Orbán, who governed for 16 years and won a campaign endorsement from Netanyahu ahead of his unsuccessful reelection bid, blocked a proposal in February to sanction violent West Bank settlers that had the backing of 26 of the EU’s 27 member countries.

When Péter Magyar, who defeated Orbán on April 12, takes office as prime minister, those sanctions are likely to advance, according to three EU diplomats and two EU officials, granted anonymity to speak frankly about the sensitive diplomacy.

While Magyar has said he will preserve Hungary’s special relationship with Israel, he also told journalists the day after his election that he “cannot guarantee that Hungary will continue to block the EU’s decisions regarding Israel.”

A first EU official said a “turning point” in Brussels’ mood toward Israel came after a series of Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon in early April killed more than 250 people. “That cost Israel some friends.”

Another potential step from the EU is suspending the EU-Israel Association Agreement, an option proposed by the European Commission at the height of Israel’s war in Gaza and pushed for on Sunday by Spain’s Pedro Sánchez. The agreement, which entered into force in 2000, underpins commercial relations between the EU and Israel.

That measure has so far fallen short of the qualified majority needed for approval, but the senior EU official said it could reach the threshold if Italy drops its opposition.

The push to ramp up pressure on Israel is in focus this week as the EU’s chief diplomat Kaja Kallas presides over a meeting of the Global Alliance for a Two-State Solution as well as at a gathering of EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg. Ministers are expected to raise the subject of West Bank sanctions and the Association Agreement — although one EU diplomat from a mid-sized EU country and the EU official quoted above said that countries might avoid moving ahead in deference to peace talks between Israel and Lebanon.

Tensions ramp up

The push to revisit sanctions comes as EU leaders intensify their criticism of Israel over its actions in Lebanon and over a controversial law, backed by Netanyahu, that authorizes the death penalty for terrorists from the Palestinian territories.

Kallas blasted the bill — which comes ahead of Israeli elections due later this year — as a “grave regression,” in a statement issued on behalf of the bloc on March 31. Germany, France and the United Kingdom also warned that the law would “risk undermining Israel’s commitments with regard to democratic principles.”

EU chief diplomat Kaja Kallas speaks to the press in Bucha, Ukraine on March 31, 2026. | Volodymyr Tarasov/Ukrinform/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Right-wing ministers in Netanyahu’s coalition, though not the prime minister himself, have responded to the criticism by accusing opponents of weakness and urging Israel’s Supreme Court not to block the law’s application. A spokesperson for Israel’s embassy to the European Union declined to comment for this article.

The bill is also expected to fuel renewed efforts to impose sanctions on Israel, including reviving debate over the EU-Israel Association Agreement, though the two diplomats said no specific measures had yet been tabled.

“The mood is shifting,” said a second senior EU official who is involved in organizing diplomatic conversations about Israel. “Look at the Merz comments and what’s been happening in Italy,” the official added, saying much would depend on the Lebanon peace process.

A Dutch-led effort last year to suspend the agreement over alleged human rights violations in Gaza fell short of the qualified majority needed for approval. Asked whether the Commission’s proposal would need to be revisited in light of the ceasefire in Gaza, the EU diplomat cited above and a second EU diplomat gave different answers: One said it would not; the other said the proposal was no longer relevant.

Amid the new criticism, Israeli officials have acknowledged that Orbán’s departure may alter the diplomatic landscape in Europe. Still, Israel expects Hungary to remain a “friend,” according to one official familiar with the Netanyahu government’s thinking.

Magyar and Netanyahu had a “warm, introductory call” on Wednesday at which they agreed their respective foreign ministers will meet soon, according to the Israeli prime minister’s office.