Be neutral to bullish on IDFC First Bk: Aditya Arora

Aditya Arora, Adlytick, says this time, it would not be a domestic rally, but a global-led rally because Nasdaq is at lifetime high, Dow Jones is at lifetime high. Now it is time for Nifty and Bank Nifty to hit new highs. Arora’s target for Nifty is 22,500 to 23,000 and the target for Bank Nifty is 49,000 to 50,000, so pretty bullish bias over there as well. The overall setup of the market is pretty good. It is a broad-based rally after a brutal correction in smallcap and midcaps.

Let us talk about the new year, new high. What should we be doing? What is the expectation now from Nifty? Mid and smallcaps too are performing well.

Aditya Arora: New year, new high, is the theme. April series has started with very strong data and global sentiments are pretty good. China is coming back with a bang. Their PMI data was better than expected and that is adding fuel to the rally. This time, it would not be a domestic rally, but a global-led rally because Nasdaq is at lifetime high, Dow Jones is at lifetime high. Now it is time for Nifty and Bank Nifty to hit new highs.


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My target for Nifty is 22,500 to 23,000, I have been telling this since last one week and my target for Bank Nifty is 49,000 to 50,000, so pretty bullish bias over there as well. The overall setup of the market is pretty good. It is a broad-based rally. After that brutal correction in smallcap and midcaps, a lot of stocks took time to consolidate and after forming a base, all stocks are just firing away. And the data is pretty good.

FIIs have been buying since the last three days and the F&O data is pretty bullish. Bank Nifty rollover data is higher than the three-month average and that is suggesting that there is fuel to the rally in the banking space as well. HDFC Bank has also took a lot of time to consolidate. All the largecaps look pretty well and it could be a broad-based rally. Sentiments are pretty bullish and the market looks pretty bullish from here.

But during the first three months of the year, PSU banks have been interesting. Among the top gainers, PSU banks have seen a sharp run-up as well. Is there anything that is still interesting on the PSU bank front or would you just shift like you were mentioning HDFC Bank?

Aditya Arora: Private banks could lead but the chart pattern of public sector banks is not bad also. Can Bank is a good candidate in the PSU banking space. One can buy Can Bank at Rs 586.60, stop loss must be Rs 559 and target is Rs 610- 630.

In terms of stock specific bets, real estate and metals are firing away in the trading session. Which chart from these two sectors looks the strongest to you?

Aditya Arora: Last Thursday in my chat with ET Now, I had expressed my bullish view on Nifty Realty Index. From there, today all the stocks from that index are doing pretty well and there is more to go over here – 3-5% upside over here. One must maintain the bullish bias in this space. So, stocks are moving with momentum, those are not value bias, those are not cheap stocks, but stocks which are doing well on the back of momentum. One can ride that momentum.

Let us look at IDFC First Bank. What is your thought on this one? It had been s favourite for a while last year for a lot of technical analysts as well. Does it still make the favourite list?

Aditya Arora: Although this stock has disappointed a lot of analysts, from here, it is a very good value buy and IDFC First could be bought from here at Rs 76.35; stop loss must be at Rs 74.80 and target would be Rs 79-83. So it looks pretty good. It is at the support level. One should not be bearish on this counter, but neutral to bullish.

What are your top recommendations on the charts that you are spotting?

Aditya Arora: One stock which must come on everybody’s radar is MCX because there is a chartbuster move there. Recently, there have been chartbuster moves in gold, silver, crude oil, copper and aluminium. MCX is a major beneficiary when there is a good pulse in the commodity market. So, it is a good buy at this price. MCX could be bought at Rs 3,535, stop loss must be at Rs 3,300 and target is Rs 3,790.

Second one from the banking space. It is a high beta, high risk, high reward candidate. This could be bought at Rs 187, Rs 179 must be stop loss and Rs 195 to 210 is the target.

Harry Byrne

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