The euro area and its biggest economies will avoid a recession as growth returns at the end of the year, helped by slowing inflation and a robust jobs market, according to new European Union forecasts.
Inflation eased in both the US and UK, prompting bets that central banks on both sides of the Atlantic will start cutting interest rates by the middle of next year.
Meantime, expectations for growth across Europe are improving, but the rebound remains fragile in the European Union’s east. The economic recoveries underway in China and Japan are also shaky given slowing consumption, among other factors.
Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy:
US inflation broadly slowed in October, which markets cheered as a strong indication that the Federal Reserve is done hiking interest rates. Traders also pulled forward bets of when the Fed will first cut rates into the first half of next year.
There’s talk of a great divide in the US housing market, as new buyers get crushed by 8% mortgage rates while earlier ones cling gratefully to loans of less than 3%. Missing from this story is a third, even more fortunate group: the rapidly growing number of Americans who own their homes outright. The share of homes that are mortgage-free stood at a record just shy of 40%.
Over the past 11 meetings of the Fed’s Open Market Committee, not a single member voted against the actions led by Chair Jerome Powell, an unusually long stretch of unanimity that belies underlying differences and uncertainty over the direction of monetary policy and the economy.
UK inflation tumbled to the lowest level in two years, firming up bets that the Bank of England will be able to cut rates as early as the middle of next year.
The euro area and its biggest economies will avoid a recession as growth returns at the end of the year, helped by slowing inflation and a robust jobs market, according to new European Union forecasts. Even Germany, which has fared worse than peers amid a prolonged manufacturing slump, is predicted to avoid a recession.
The biggest economies in the European Union’s east are entering a fragile rebound as easing inflation encourages consumers to start spending again. Still, the picture remains clouded with inflation fading slowly in coming months. Manufacturing is also reeling from falling demand in the euro area, a major trading partner.
Japan’s economy slipped back into reverse over the summer, underscoring the fragility of the country’s recovery and backing the case for continued support from the Bank of Japan and the government. Gross domestic product declined at a 2.1% annual rate in the third quarter, largely on the back of falling business spending, a lack of recovery in consumer spending, and higher imports.
China’s consumption rebound slowed and private business confidence lost momentum in October, according to independent surveys and alternative data that suggested the economic recovery remains bumpy.
India’s trade deficit widened to a record last month as imports surged, buoyed by strong consumer spending ahead of the festival season. A 12.3% jump in inbound shipments to a fresh high of $65.03 billion came as demand for most items, including gold, electronic items and crude oil increased ahead of Diwali — the Hindu festival of lights.
Consumer prices in Argentina rose last month at their fastest pace since the country was exiting hyperinflation more than three decades ago, highlighting the dire state of the economy ahead of Sunday’s presidential election.
The rivalry between the US and China is here to stay. There are too many grievances on both sides and intractable areas of disagreement between them, from the future of Taiwan to the basic rules of fair economic competition, for that to change.
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