Nvidia: Multiple Reasons to Expect More Growth

Recent years all seem to blur into one for Nvidia (NVDA) and that is no bad thing. While the macro environment shifts from one challenge to another, the chip giant has gone from strength to strength, regardless of the constantly changing landscape.

Following chats with CFO Colette Kress during this week’s 24th Annual Needham Virtual Growth Conference, firm analyst Rajvindra Gil sees enough growth drivers to keep up momentum.

In Gaming – Nvidia’s main breadwinner – Gaming GPUs continue to see strong demand. So far, of the 250 million global GeForce installed base, only 25% have upgraded to either the present or prior generation of processors, which feature RTX (ray tracing). Many currently popular games use this graphics rendering technique and the prospect of more usage implies a “significant upgrade cycle ahead.”

Likewise, in Data Center, only ~10% of servers are thought to be GPU accelerated – that is 90% are still CPU-based. As the use cases of Machine Learning and AI keep on expanding, Gill expects Data Center to “drive growth in the future.”

Those are Nvidia’s two main segments right now but in Automotive, a 3rd growth avenue could open up, with the widespread use of AI (both for autonomous driving and voice assistance) expected to “fuel demand” for GPU- acceleration.

There’s also the prospect of a new $100 billion + TAM with the advent of the Omniverse 3D virtual world – consisting of a mix of software, hardware and services revenue streams.

In fact, the company has pivoted way from pure chip sales to also being a provider of systems and platforms, including “more differentiated, proprietary ones.” This richer product mix is behind an improvement in Non-GAAP gross margins to around the 67% range over the past few quarters and Gill sees “additional levers on the software side to drive it higher.”

The company is also in the envious position of demand “exceeding supply,” although Gill reassures the CFO offered an “upbeat tone regarding the potential for this imbalance to improve in the second half of 2022.”

To this end, Gill rates NVDA a Buy, while the $400 price target suggests shares have room for ~51% growth over the next 12 months. (To watch Gill’s track record, click here)

Gill is one of many NVDA bulls on Wall Street; the stock’s Strong Buy consensus rating is based on 24 Buys vs 2 Holds. At $359.17, the average price target implies share appreciation of 35% in the year ahead. (See Nvidia stock forecast on TipRanks)

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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.

Harry Byrne

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