US Poll shock! Support for 'President Meghan' growing as Biden loses ground with voters

There have been reports the Duchess of Sussex would like to make a pitch for the White House and her political ambitions have been supported in the Democracy Institute/ Express.co.uk monthly US tracker poll published today. Asked which female candidate they want, respondents put Markle second behind Michelle Obama but ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris and Hilary Clinton.

The survey findings have underlined the dismal political situation faced by President Joe Biden and the Democrats while showing the way is clear for Donald Trump to win back the White House.

Looking ahead to November’s midterm elections, the Republicans are ahead by 50 percent to the Democrats’ 42 percent.

This would give the Republicans 262 seats in the House of Representatives to 173 Democrats while in the Senate it is projected to be 54 to 46 in favour of the Republicans.

This will open up the prospect of the Republicans pushing ahead with attempts to impeach President Biden over alleged corruption involving his son Hunter and historic deals in Ukraine.

But things get worse for President Biden as for the second month in a row more Americans (53 percent) believe it would be better if he is out of the White House than those who think it would be better if Putin was deposed in the Kremlin (44 percent). 

The US President has negative ratings on every front and only 35 percent think he can win the next election if he runs again while 63 percent believe he will lose.

Patrick Basham, Director of the Democracy Institute, said: “Americans were initially quite supportive of the sanctions that the Biden administration promised would collapse the Russian economy. But domestic supply chain problems and rising prices, when contrasted with full shelves in Moscow and a ruble gaining in strength against the American dollar, mean the unceasing drumbeat about Russia’s ruined economy rings rather hollow. 

“Crucially, voters increasingly appreciate that the tit-for-tat sanctions dance ongoing between Russia and most Western nations is harming them here at home more than their intended target, the Russian people.”

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With Donald Trump continuing to give major rallies across America and Twitter coming under the ownership of Elon Musk ensuring free speech on the social media platform, there is a belief Mr Trump can win again.

The polling shows that President Biden still stands the best chance against Trump than any other Democrat but still losing by 47 percent to 43 percent.

Hilary Clinton comes six points behind Trump on 47 percent to 41 percent in a head to head.

However, the next best performer against Trump is the Duchess of Sussex who polls seven points behind 46 percent to 39 percent.

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She infamously refused to meet Trump when he had an official visit to the UK and was hosted by the Queen.

And in a prickly relationship he once said “Harry will need a lot of luck” in a dig at the American ex-Royal and adding “I don’t like her.”

In a head-to-head between the two there is an enormous 15 percent undecided bigger than any other match up and more than double the gap between them offering the Duchess a path to victory as an unknown political commodity.

There is a strong suggestion that the Democrats will replace Biden as their candidate for 2024 with a woman.

The clear favourite for that is former US President Barack Obama’s wife Michelle on 39 percent. However, in second place is Meghan at 17 percent.

She comes ahead of more established political figures like Vice President Kamala Harris (11 percent) and Hilary Clinton (13 percent).

Democracy Institute/ Express Poll Results

US House of Representatives

National Generic Congressional Vote

Q “Which party’s congressional candidate will you vote for in this year’s election for the House of Representatives?”

  • Republican candidate = 50%

  • Democratic candidate = 42%

  • Other/Undecided = 8%

Sub-groups

  • Registered Republicans: 

Republican = 94%    Democratic = 4%   Undecided = 2%

  • Registered Democrats: 

Republican = 9%   Democratic = 84%   Undecided = 7%

  • Registered Independents: 

Republican = 52%   Democratic = 36%   Undecided = 12% 

  • Male voters: 

Republican = 50%   Democratic = 44%   Undecided = 6%

  • Female voters: 

Republican = 52%   Democratic = 41%   Undecided = 7% 

  • White voters: 

Republican = 52%   Democratic = 38%   Undecided = 10%

  • Black voters: 

Republican 28%    Democratic = 66%   Undecided = 6%

  • Hispanic voters: 

Republican 50%    Democratic = 38%   Undecided = 12%

House of Representatives Seat Projection (if voting uniformly mirrors these poll results)

435 total seats / 218 seats needed to win majority

  • Republicans (+) 51 seats = 262 seats (211 current)

  • Democrats (-) 48 seats = 173 seats (221 current)

US Senate

National Generic Senatorial Vote

Q “Which party’s candidate will/would you vote for in this year’s election for the Senate?”

  • Republican candidate = 48%

  • Democratic candidate = 43%

  • Other/Undecided = 9%

Sub-groups

  • Registered Republicans: 

Republican = 92%    Democratic = 4%   Undecided = 4%

  • Registered Democrats: 

Republican = 9%   Democratic = 86%   Undecided = 5%

  • Registered Independents: 

Republican = 50%   Democratic = 37%   Undecided = 13% 

  • Male voters: 

Republican = 50%   Democratic = 43%   Undecided = 7%

  • Female voters: 

Republican = 45%   Democratic = 42%   Undecided = 13% 

  • White voters: 

Republican = 51%   Democratic = 37%   Undecided = 12%

  • Black voters: 

Republican 26%    Democratic = 68%   Undecided = 6%

  • Hispanic voters: 

Republican 47%    Democratic = 40%   Undecided = 13%

Senate Seat Projection (if voting uniformly mirrors these poll results)

100 total seats / currently 50 Democrats 50 Republicans

  • Republicans (+) 4 seats = 54 seats 

  • Democrats (-) 4 seats = 46 seats 

  • Projected Republican gains: Arizona; Georgia; New Hampshire; Nevada

Enthusiasm Gap

Q “Are you extremely or very enthusiastic about your choice of congressional candidate?”

  • Republican voters = 63%

  • Democratic voters = 46%

Direction of Country

Q “Is America currently heading in the right or wrong direction as a country?”

  • Right = 27%

  • Wrong = 71%

Most Important Issue & Favoured Party

Q “What issue is most important to you, and which party do you favour on this issue?”

  • Inflation = 28%  [Republicans favored by 17 points]

  • Economy/Jobs = 17%   [Republicans +14]

  • Crime = 15%   [Republicans +21]

  • Education = 13%   [Republicans +8]

  • Immigration = 12%   [Republicans +11]

  • Coronavirus/COVID-19 = 8%   [Democrats +3]

  • Ukraine/Russia = 7%   [Republicans +3]

Biden’s Job Approval Rating

Q “Do you approve or disapprove of Joe Biden’s overall performance as President?”

  • Approve = 41%

  • Disapprove = 54%

Biden’s Domestic Policy Rating

Q “Do you approve of President Biden’s overall handling of the economy?”

  • Yes = 37%

  • No = 58%

Biden’s Foreign Policy Ratings 

Q “Do you approve of President Biden’s overall handling of foreign policy?”

  • Yes = 40%

  • No = 56%

Q “Do you approve of President Biden’s handling of the Ukraine crisis?”

  • Yes = 38%

  • No = 52%

Q “Which country is hurt more by the economic sanctions imposed upon Russia?”

  • America = 53%

  • Russia = 44%

Q “Is it okay for the US to let Ukraine lose to Russia?”

  • Yes = 43%

  • No = 41%

Q “Should the US government work to remove Russian president Vladimir Putin from power?”

  • Yes = 46%

  • No = 48%

Q “Which of the following scenarios would be better for America?”

  • President Putin doesn’t remain in power in the Kremlin = 44%

  • President Biden doesn’t remain in power in the White House = 53%

Q “Which country poses the greatest threat to America?”

  • China = 42%

  • Iran = 20%

  • North Korea = 18%

  • Russia = 16%

  • Other = 4%

2024 Presidential Election

Q “Will President Biden be reelected in 2024?”

  • Yes = 35%

  • No = 63%

2024 Presidential Match-Ups

Q “If the 2024 presidential election is between President Joe Biden, the Democratic candidate, and former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, who will you vote for?”

  • Biden = 43%

  • Trump = 47%

  • Other/Undecided = 10%

Q “If the 2024 presidential election is between Vice-President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, and former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, who will you vote for?”

  • Harris = 39%

  • Trump = 48%

  • Other/Undecided = 13%

Q “If the 2024 presidential election is between Hillary Clinton, the Democratic candidate, and former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, who will you vote for?”

  • Clinton = 41%

  • Trump = 47%

  • Other/Undecided = 12%

Q “If the 2024 presidential election is between Meghan Markle, the Democratic candidate, and former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, who will you vote for?”

  • Markle = 39%

  • Trump = 46%

  • Other/Undecided = 15%

Q “If the Democratic party chooses a woman as its 2024 presidential candidate, which of the following women would you prefer to vote for?” 

[Question asked of likely Democratic voters only]

  • Hillary Clinton = 13%

  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez = 11%

  • Kamala Harris = 11%

  • Meghan Markle = 17%

  • Michelle Obama = 39%

  • Elizabeth Warren = 9%



Poll Methodology

The fieldwork for this survey of a randomly selected national telephone (landline and cell) sample of 1500 likely voters was conducted by the Democracy Institute’s polling unit from April 26th to April 28th 2022. The national party identification turnout model is D (+) 2, i.e., Democrats = 35 percent; Republicans = 33 percent; and Independents = 32 percent. The survey was conducted via interactive voice response, in which recorded questions were played for randomly-dialled respondents and answers were given via their telephone keypads. To ensure a representative sample, the results were weighted for key demographic and political variables including, but not limited to, party identification, gender, age, education, income, region, voting history, and cell phone-only households. This national poll has a margin of error of (+/-) 3 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval. 

Harry Byrne

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