The conversation on European nukes is heating up in Munich

MUNICH, Germany — Multiple European countries are publicly backing talks on a homegrown nuclear deterrent to complement American atomic weapons following an erosion of trust in a Donald Trump-led U.S.

Top officials from two Baltic countries told POLITICO that, while they still see NATO as the cornerstone of nuclear deterrence, they are now willing to talk about Europe’s role — adding fresh momentum to a debate that resonated through both public speeches and private conversations at the Munich Security Conference this weekend.

The rising pressure to start a serious nuclear conversation in Europe is a response to wavering confidence that the U.S. would repel a Russian attack, something that hasn’t lifted despite U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s relatively conciliatory tone in a speech Saturday morning.

Estonia isn’t ruling out joining early-stage talks on a common nuclear deterrent in Europe, Deputy Defense Minister Tuuli Duneton said in an interview. “We are always open to discuss” with partners, she said, while emphasizing the U.S. was still “committed to providing nuclear deterrence for allied nations.”

Latvia’s Prime Minister Evika Siliņa echoed that. “Nuclear deterrence can give us new opportunities. Why not?” she said, while cautioning that any steps would have to be in compliance with “our international commitments.”

Trump has questioned NATO’s common defense Article 5 provision, ridiculed allied contributions to the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan and repeatedly called for annexing Greenland, part of NATO-member Denmark. That’s leading Europe to hunt for what officials call another layer of “insurance” against Moscow.

Evika Silina, Prime Minister of Latvia, at the Munich Security Conference. | Felix Hörhager/Picture Alliance via Getty Images

In practice, that means turning to France and the U.K. — Europe’s only nuclear powers. Unlike London, Paris is not part of NATO’s Nuclear Planning Group, which discusses the use of nuclear force through the alliance. French presidents have underlined that France’s national interests have a European dimension, while stressing that any launch decision rests purely with Paris.

Both German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron addressed a European nuclear deterrent in their Munich speeches.

“Nuclear deterrence is a prominent subject” at this year’s conference, Latvia’s Foreign Minister Baiba Braže said. Belgian Defense Minister Theo Francken also attended a closed-door discussion on the topic.

But not everyone is on board. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez admitted on Saturday that Europe must get stronger to deter Russia, but said: “I strongly believe that nuclear rearmament is not the right way of doing it.”

U.S. Undersecretary of Defense Elbridge Colby said America was not withdrawing its nuclear umbrella from the continent, although Washington wants Europe to step up and do more for conventional defense.

Critical mass

Nuclear talks between France, Germany and other countries including Sweden are at very early stages.

On Friday, Macron mentioned the need to “rearticulate nuclear deterrence” to also take into account conventional weapons such as deep-strike missiles. He has a landmark speech on France’s approach to its nuclear doctrine planned for early March.

Conversations about France’s atomic weapons with European allies is “important because this is a way to articulate nuclear deterrence in a holistic approach of defense and security,” he said.

According to nuclear expert Bruno Tertrais, who is deputy director of the Foundation for Strategic Research, a French security think tank, that signals a slight change where France sees a greater interaction between conventional and nuclear deterrence.

A new paper presented on the conference’s sidelines assesses six different nuclear options for the continent: Doubling down on America’s deterrent; increasing the role of France and the U.K.; developing a supranational Eurodeterrent; acquiring new independent arsenals; and focusing on conventional deterrence.

Two senior European government officials said that capitals could theoretically help support France’s nuclear deterrent by providing conventional military assets like submarines. Paris could also consider increasing its nuclear arsenal, subsidized by other countries, added the officials, both of whom were granted anonymity to speak freely.

Some countries are calling for France to join NATO’s official nuclear planning process, which they argue would more closely tie the French arsenal to European security.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said he is not against talks in Europe as long as they don’t undermine America’s role. | Halil Sagirkaya/Anadolu via Getty Images

French Deputy Defense Minister Alice Rufo said in Munich that Paris has no intention of doing that.

Latvian Defense Minister Andris Sprūds told POLITICO that, “We respect the sovereign choices of countries,” but added: “Of course we are open also to integrate as much as possible the French nuclear capability into the NATO nuclear capability.”

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said he is not against talks in Europe as long as they don’t undermine America’s role.

“I think every discussion in Europe making sure that collectively the nuclear threats is even stronger — fine. But nobody is arguing in Europe to do this as a … replacement of the nuclear umbrella of the United States,” he told POLITICO on Saturday.

Now, the next step is Macron’s speech in March — and there’s pressure on him to deliver.

“After years of French attempts to develop a common strategic approach to deterrence in Europe, often at odds with the interests of our allies, the geopolitical context now allows for alignment,” said Héloïse Fayet, a researcher at the French Institute for International Relations.

“We must now translate these words into concrete actions and proposals in order to strengthen European deterrence in the face of the Russian threat and American volatility,” she added.