Germany’s Merz aims to sweet talk Trump on Ukraine and tariffs

BERLIN — Faced with Donald Trump’s decision to strike Iran, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has a notably resigned message for the U.S. president: Who are we Europeans to judge?

Despite the German leader’s deep concern that the conflict in the Middle East will spiral out of control, with potentially grave consequences for Europe, Merz said ahead of his Tuesday Oval Office meeting with Trump that he was in no position to criticize the U.S. president. After all, he argued, Germany’s own approach to Iran has been ineffectual — and Europe needs the U.S. to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.

“Now is not the time to lecture our partners and allies,” Merz said in Berlin one day before his departure to the U.S. “The German government’s view of developments in Iran is determined by our own geopolitical vulnerability, as Russia’s war against Ukraine is in no way less than the injustice of the Iranian regime.”

Merz has judiciously been making the right noises in the build-up to the Washington visit. He sounded tough against Beijing’s market-distorting trade practices after a meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping last week, and is admitting Europe’s failures in trying to deal with Iran. That’s exactly what Trump wants to hear.

The chancellor has established a relatively good rapport with Trump, according to people close to him, and is certain to leverage this to try to cajole the president to align with Europe on two issues of vital, immediate interest to the EU —  support for Ukraine, and the administration’s tariff plans in a moment of great uncertainty following the U.S. Supreme Court’s rejection of Trump’s tariff regime.

The visit may not resemble Merz’s stop at the White House last year, when foreign leaders were more often subjected to lengthy public inquisitions before a phalanx of press in the Oval Office. Last time, Merz sat deferentially as Trump did most of the talking. This time, Trump may seize the opportunity to try to get Merz to back him on Iran in front of cameras. 

One of Merz’s main goals will be to convince Trump to put more pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine. | Guido Bergmann/Bundesregierung via Getty Images

Merz’s statements ahead of the meeting suggest he could try to curry favor with the president by potentially addressing U.S. Republican claims that Europe has been “pathetically soft” on Iran — as Trump ally U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham put it — by arguing they have a point.

Merz on Sunday said his government is “drawing sober conclusions” from the failures of its policy toward Tehran. “Appeals from Europe” and packages of sanctions had failed because Europe was “not prepared to enforce fundamental interests with military force,” the chancellor said.

Even as Germany stays out of the military conflict with Iran, Merz hopes his conciliatory tone will work to draw Trump closer on Ukraine and tariffs — the two issues that have most tested transatlantic ties. German officials don’t expect to convert Trump on these issues, but remain hopeful they can make incremental progress. 

“Merz and Trump still get along well,” said Metin Hakverdi, a center-left lawmaker who serves as the German government’s transatlantic coordinator. “That doesn’t mean Trump will stop being Trump. But it does mean that you can clearly articulate your interests to him.”

Ukraine and tariffs

One of Merz’s main goals will be to convince Trump to put more pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine by toughening American sanctions on Moscow, say people familiar with the chancellor’s thinking. To do so, the chancellor is likely to cast the U.S. fight against the regime in Tehran in terms of a larger struggle.

Helpfully for that argument, Putin has referred to the killing of Khamenei as “a cynical violation of all norms of human morality and international law.”

As Stefan Kornelius, Merz’s spokesperson, told reporters on Monday: “We have also seen in Russia’s reaction to the American actions in Iran that there is once again a clear taking of sides here that the U.S. will not share … I believe this conflict shows once again where right and wrong lie in Ukraine.”

Russia’s rising battlefield casualties — which it can no longer compensate for with new recruits — may also provide an opening for Merz to convince Trump to pressure Russia, said Norbert Röttgen, a senior lawmaker in Merz’s conservative party.

“There are both military and economic problems for Russia that are increasing and becoming more and more apparent,” said Röttgen. “That is a certain new factor.”

At the same time, Merz — who was in China last week — will likely talk to Trump about what he sees as the need for the U.S and the EU to draw closer together to confront common challenges posed by Beijing, including Chinese subsidies to loss-making companies and dependencies on Beijing for critical raw materials.

“In this context, the chancellor will probably also point out that the U.S. tariff policy of course makes de-risking even more problematic, because it puts us in a situation where we are under pressure from two sides,” Röttgen said of the EU’s position.

It may help Merz’s cause that he sounded almost Trumpian last week during his visit to Beijing. After meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping, Merz bemoaned his country’s ballooning trade deficit with China in language Trump would likely endorse, calling Germany’s trade dynamic with China “unhealthy.”

Whether Merz’s conciliatory tone will work to draw Trump closer on Ukraine and tariffs — the two issues that have most tested transatlantic ties — remains a big question. | Pool photo by Evan Vucci via AFP/Getty Images

Merz may also have some direct leverage to exert in discussions in Washington. Trump is eager for foreign companies to move more of their production facilities to the U.S., including German automotive manufacturing facilities, a U.S. official said last week. A primary focus of their meeting will be deepening the economic cooperation between the U.S. and Germany, the official added.

But given Trump’s steadfast commitment to tariffs, the most Merz may be able to realistically hope for is clarity on the administration’s plans for EU levies — especially in light of the president’s uneven response to the Supreme Court decision that derailed the EU–U.S. trade deal.

German and EU leaders at least want to ensure that tariffs under the new regime will not exceed the 15 percent tariff cap agreed in the summer. “We therefore expect clarity from the U.S. government on the next steps,” Sebastian Hille, a spokesperson for Merz’s government, said last week. “We want to achieve stability and predictability in trade relations. This is essential for us and also for U.S. companies.”

At the same time, Merz will want to ensure there’s no broader escalation in the president’s trade wars.

“The tariff screw can be turned again as a geostrategic tool,” said Hakverdi, Berlin’s transatlantic coordinator. “That is the central problem, and that is precisely why personal exchanges at the highest level are so important.”