Hungary’s Orbán leverages oil price shock from Iran war in his election battle

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is seizing on fears of an energy price shock from the Iran war to try to claw back ground against his challenger Péter Magyar ahead of an April 12 election.

About 10 percentage points behind in the polls, Orbán is now putting energy costs at the heart of the election race. He accuses Magyar’s Tisza party of conspiring with the EU and Ukraine to cut Hungary off from cheap Russian oil, arguing those flows could have cushioned Budapest from the spiraling crude costs triggered by the war on Iran.

Sensing an electoral advantage in a showdown with Brussels, Orbán last month vetoed the EU’s all-important €90 billion funding line for Kyiv, accusing the Ukrainians of slow-walking repairs to the Druzhba pipeline that carries discounted Russian oil across Ukraine to Hungary. On Jan. 27 the pipeline was blown up in a drone attack, Kyiv reported at the time.

That ruptured pipeline has now become even more politically sensitive thanks to the supply crisis in the Persian Gulf.

Orbán is a close ally of Donald Trump, and the Iran war is a rare point of dissonance between him and the U.S. president. Still, the main target of Orbán’s attacks is not Washington but the domestic opposition, which he claims put Hungary in a vulnerable position by siding with the EU and Ukraine rather than fighting to preserve Russian oil supplies.

Orbán and his ruling Fidesz party are also playing up alleged security threats from the war in the Middle East — raising the country’s terror level.

Orbán plays the energy card

“Developments involving Iran may have an indirect impact on Hungary’s security, with particular regard to our energy security,” Orbán said on Sunday. “Due to the conflict, significant energy price increases are expected on global markets. In this situation, it is crucial that we break President [Volodymyr] Zelenskyy’s oil blockade against Hungary.”

Orbán accuses Péter Magyar’s Tisza party of conspiring with the EU and Ukraine to cut Hungary off from cheap Russian oil. | Bálint Szentgallay/NurPhoto via Getty Images

The Hungarian prime minister’s political director, Balázs Orbán, on Monday pushed to make the link to Magyar, accusing him of “acting against the Hungarian people” by teaming up with Brussels and Kyiv on oil supplies.

“[Magyar] dismissed the government’s warnings about the Ukrainian oil blockade as fearmongering and panic-mongering, claiming there is no danger and no war, while at the same time openly campaigning for Hungary’s detachment from Russian energy — the very core of the Brussels- and Kyiv-backed program he represents,” he said.

“Hungarians are not naïve. They can clearly see that, given the global instability and the escalating Middle East conflict, advocating for decoupling from Russian oil and accepting Ukrainian blackmail would be madness,” Balázs Orbán added.

Members of the Hungarian government have posted satellite imaginary claiming Kyiv lied about the pipeline’s not being operational, and have demanded Zelenskyy immediately resume oil deliveries. Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó accused Zelenskyy of “not telling the truth,” claiming that “at a time when maritime oil transport is uncertain due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, blocking a functioning land supply route is a direct attack against Hungary.”

The Hungarian prime minister’s political director, Balázs Orbán, on Monday pushed to make the link to Magyar, accusing him of “acting against the Hungarian people.” | Attila Kisbenedek/AFP via Getty Images

Hungary also raised the matter on Sunday when EU ambassadors met for crisis talks on the situation in Iran. Budapest’s top envoy, Bálint Ódor, used his intervention to accuse Kyiv of “weaponizing the pipeline” to interfere in Hungary’s elections, according to a diplomat who was present.

Magyar’s reply

Magyar has built his lead over Orbán by focusing on the government’s cronyism and economic mismanagement, and has been keen not to be cast as an ally of the EU and Kyiv.

His Tisza party’s program does indeed vow to halt Russian energy supplies, by only by the distant date of 2035.

Indeed, far from fighting the Fidesz government’s claims over the pipeline, he issued a letter on Monday proposing a joint on-site inspection of Druzhba.

“The Hungarian people rightly expect their responsible leaders to make decisions based on facts and in a transparent manner, and not via messages on Facebook and in propaganda,” the letter read.

Magyar has also insisted that if the Ukrainian threat to Hungary’s energy infrastructure is as serious as Orbán claims, he should trigger NATO’s Article 4, which allows member states to consult with their allies if they believe their territorial integrity or security is under threat.

Geoffrey Smith and Jamie Dettmer contributed reporting to this article