Starmer’s new plan: Save our energy bills, stop the war

LONDON — Keir Starmer knows the war in Iran could sink his number one domestic mission: Cutting the cost of living. 

But unfortunately for him, the man with most power to stop the conflict seems not to be in a hurry. 

The U.K. prime minister was more explicit than ever on Wednesday that he wants to see “de-escalation” in the Middle East — in part because it’s the surest way of stopping energy bills skyrocketing in his own country. 

Starmer said his government was “working around the clock” to ensure consumer and business costs don’t soar, after being challenged in the House of Commons over fears that disrupted oil and gas flows from the Gulf are spiking gasoline prices and could hike home energy bills, too.

“The most important thing, the most effective thing we can do,” he told MPs, “is to work with our allies to find a way to de-escalate the situation” in the Middle East. 

That might prove … tricky. 

While Donald Trump faces his own domestic drama over high prices at the pump, the White House is showing no signs of seeking an immediate resolution to the conflict.  

The Trump administration believes it can withstand a spike in oil prices for as many as four weeks before the political pain starts to bite, POLITICO has reported.

That timeframe — should it be borne out — is laden with risk of further escalation in the region, and carries major domestic political risk for Starmer, over an issue that remains the public’s number one priority. 

Balancing act

“While the public are deeply concerned about events in the Middle East and implications for international security, those concerns are dwarfed by worries about the cost of living,” said pollster Luke Tryl, director of the More in Common think tank. 

“The prime minister has so far managed to stay on the right side of public opinion on the war, with the median Brit supporting Starmer’s position of allowing the use of U.K. bases purely for defensive strikes,” Tryl added.

“However, the balancing act between maintaining a good relationship with the United States and being able to show he is doing everything he can to stop the war leading to another spike in the cost of living is a tricky one.” 

The Trump administration believes it can withstand a spike in oil prices for as many as four weeks before the political pain starts to bite, POLITICO has reported. | Celal Gunes/Anadolu via Getty Images

There’s also a Catch-22. Efforts by Starmer and other European leaders to mitigate the war’s impact on the global economy might help persuade Trump he need not hurry U.S. withdrawal from the Gulf. 

America’s allies confirmed Wednesday they would coordinate — via the International Energy Agency (IEA)— release of a record 400 million barrels of oil from their strategic reserves. Even before it was confirmed, expectation of this move helped temper oil price rises.  

The next big decision could center on the Strait of Hormuz, a key trade route largely closed to oil and gas shipping since the crisis began. 

While welcoming agreement on the release of strategic reserves, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said: “The most important thing for a return to stable flows of oil and gas is the resumption of transit” through the Strait. 

Starmer’s Chancellor Rachel Reeves told MPs on Wednesday the “root cause” of the U.K.’s cost-of-living concerns “is the challenge in getting oil and gas out of the Middle East.” The government would “work flat-out” to de-escalate the conflict and “get vessels moving again in the Strait of Hormuz,” she said. 

Precisely what that means in practice — or whether the U.K. or other American allies could police Hormuz without getting involved in U.S. and Israeli offensive operations against Iran — is unclear. 

Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper spoke to U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio Monday, according to U.K. officials, who said they discussed their “desire to see a swift resolution that supports stability in the Middle East and protects the global economy.” 

Moment of maximum danger

So far, U.K. household energy bills — significantly influenced by wholesale gas prices — have been spared the price spike, which has been driven by both the effective closure of the Strait and by Iranian attacks on energy production in Gulf countries. The most notable attack was against QatarEnergy, a major liquefied natural gas exporter, which has suspended production.

U.K. gas and electricity costs are determined using a regulated price updated every three months, and prices until June are already locked in. 

But the longer the war goes on, the bigger the impact will be when the price cap is set for July to September — and beyond. 

Reeves told MPs on Wednesday it is “much too early, less than two weeks into the conflict, to have any certainty about what things will look like when the next energy price cap is determined, at the end of May, for July.” 

But for a government that has promised to cut energy bills £300 by 2030, the longer the war, the bleaker that moment in May could be. 

Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper spoke to U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio Monday, according to U.K. officials, who said they discussed their “desire to see a swift resolution that supports stability in the Middle East and protects the global economy.” | Justin Tallis/AFP via Getty images

Hence Starmer’s increasingly urgent focus on somehow persuading the U.S. and Israel to draw back. That task won’t be made any easier by deteriorating relations with Trump, who last week, in a row over U.S. access to U.K. military bases, dismissed Starmer as “not Winston Churchill.” 

“The most important issue is de-escalating the situation,” Starmer told MPs Wednesday, reiterating that the U.K. “should not join the war in Iran” and would only carry out defensive military operations in the region to “protect British lives and the British national interest.” 

For the prime minister — hanging onto office by a thread even before the conflict — it could yet prove be existential. 

“For all the support for Starmer in navigating the conflict so far,” said Tryl, “if people start to feel the impact in their pockets and bills, the demand for change which has already tanked his poll ratings will likely only grow.” 

Additional reporting by Esther Webber.